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地摊经济的是与非。未来能否靠地摊促进消费增长?地摊经济是中央的长期决定还是短期举措?
原创!!!禁止抄袭与转载!!!随着两会期间,李克强总理提出“地摊经济、小店经济是就业岗位的重要来源,是人间的烟火,...
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2020/06

地摊经济的是与非。未来能否靠地摊促进消费增长?地摊经济是中央的长期决定还是短期举措?

原创!!!禁止抄袭与转载!!!
随着两会期间,李克强总理提出“地摊经济、小店经济是就业岗位的重要来源,是人间的烟火,和“高大上”一样,是中国的生机。”,地摊经济似乎迸发出了新的生命力,随着舆论的发酵,各地政府“像抓住了经济的救命稻草一样”开始尝试引导并鼓励地摊经济的发展。那么,问题来了,未来,地摊经济能否促进消费增长?地摊经济是中央的长期决定还是短期举措?

回答这些问题前我个人把地摊经济先做个分类,分为“小吃地摊经济”、“非小吃地摊经济”。这两种形态的地摊在经济结构中区别很大。
我们来做个场景假设,探讨下围绕着“地摊”的人的流向和钱的变化。

人的流向:出门[0]->到目标地[1]->玩[2]->买东西[3]->吃东西[4]->回程[5]->睡觉[6]。
钱的流向:交通工具支出[0]->门票(或没门票)支出[1]->玩的支出(或不玩)[2]->买东西(或不买)[3]->吃东西[4]->交通工具支持[5]->睡觉[6].

我们来观察下,由于“地摊”的出现,哪些环节有了新变化。
很显然,最主要的影响是[3],[4],影响[3]的是“非小吃地摊经济”,影响[4]的是“小吃地摊经济”。
通过分析可以得出:

假设,在顾客兜里面的钱不变,且绝对够花的情况下,结论如下
结论:单靠[3],[4]很难很大程度上促进消费增长,符合中央今年“求脱贫保就业”的主旋律,但非中央长期决定,属于短期举措。

分析过程:两个环节的分析如下:
1.直接受冲击的是[4],“小吃地摊”的出现,大部分周边餐饮门店的消费会受到冲击,因为顾客在固定时间内只能吃饱一次,且因为价格便宜,顾客花在[4]上面的支出有可能下降。由于[4]的下降,间接的花在其他环节的消费可能会上升。
因此,地方政府尤其要注意处理好“小吃地摊”和“周边餐饮店”的关系,同时对个体户来说,还是不建议做“小吃地摊”了,不仅要和其他地摊竞争,还得和门店竞争,同时顾客消费上没有增加,地方政府肯定不乐意,且矛盾关系突出,一旦未来矛盾被引爆,有被政府再次清场的可能。
2.[3]的支出大概率会有所提升,我猜测,在固定区域内,大部分的地摊主为了更好的生存,大概率会选择自己有卖,门店没有卖的产品;小部分地摊主会选择价格比门店低的产品去卖。前者可以增加顾客的购物时间,且[3]的支出会增多;后者会降低顾客的购物时间,且[3]的支出会减少。因此,如果有人要摆地摊,可以推荐选“非小吃地摊”,重点选附近门店没有卖的东西卖

由于今年中央的总目标是“消除绝对贫困”,“保证社会就业稳定性”,所以这个号召可以看做是一次配合这个目标下的一个短期举措,是对市场蛋糕的再分过程,把一部分门店的收益剥离,然后分给一些收入低下的个体户。因为市场整体蛋糕没有变大,所以不符合国家的长期经济增长发展战略,因此今年过后政府对“地摊经济”的态度可能会比较模糊。
不过,总体上来讲,门店的抗风险能力较高,经济生活受影响不算大,拿数据说的话就是以前一年能赚30-50万,未来大概率只赚到20-30万。小贩的收益会有大概率改善,会促进一部分人从“无产阶级”进入到“小中产阶级”。因此人民的平均生活水平会得到提高,会适当的减少贫富差距。

那么我们以及企业有什么招数可以破局呢?我的答案如下:
我想强调的重头戏是[2]。因为相比于3,[2]所代表的钱景和未来绝对是不可估量的,也是中央、地方政府很可能会忽略的一个环节,利用的好能大幅度扩大内需。因为[2]是唯一一个不破坏任何“钱的流向”的环节,能直接增加顾客消费支出,提升“人的流向”整个环节总时长,同时间接提升其他环节的支出。

那怎么用好[2]呢,我有一个大胆的想法,
首先,由一些知名的互联网娱乐平台(抖音、快手、虎牙直播、B站等)发起“地摊红人”活动,并成立扶持基金。
其次,每个城市招募一些组织者,现场组织起带门票(必须)的“小剧场”、“才艺比赛”等演出活动,同时结合平台流量做线上宣传推广,可以根据附近门店拉一些赞助活动。收入分成平台可以自己设计。
然后,鼓励每年艺术类院校的毕业生(大概率是失业或者转行,具体可以百度一些行业数据)去做“地摊网红”(比街头卖艺高一级,因为有组织者控场,现场用户体验感相对较强),全国34个省,大量的地级市及县级市,绝对有足够的市场需求。
最后,每次演出的收入我觉得也足够分钱了,具体不分析了,变现机会太多没啥可分析的。

在[2]这个过程中,消费提升、GDP提升、就业提升,简直完美。如果有人想创业,我强力推荐选这个环节介入,未来发财了,回来给我简单打赏几块钱就行了。。。

Last modification:June 3rd, 2020 at 10:49 pm
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